Please fill up the comment section on this one, as I’d really love your thoughts. It looks like I’m going to lead a session on this topic at the Congress for New Urbanism in Charlotte, at the end of May/beginning of June.
I’ve been reading and learning a lot about what’s going on with AI lately, and how transformative the technology seems. I feel like many people are really tuned out on this topic, and have no idea what is coming. That’s understandable, since we all have lives and interests and can’t possibly keep up with everything. But, this seems like a category of - it’s a really big deal. In fact, I see enormous disruptions coming, and sooner than people realize.
But that’s enough about my thoughts.
I have a question for you all.
How do you think AI will impact the world you work in, and similarly, how will it affect life in cities and towns in America?
Please let the comments rip. Those comments that are especially insightful might make it into my presentation at CNU.
Thanks - I’m very interested to hear your thoughts and any early experiences you’re having with this emerging technology.
Within the first decade of adoption I don't think as many jobs are going to disappear as most tech companies and leaders seem to assume. It's also hard to predict what new jobs will be created through AI applications. It's almost a certainty that food service, groceries, retail, etc. will likely get by with fewer employees, but this shift may come with benefits as well. It could allow for increased pay, expanded roles, and for putting employee resources towards new areas, where before they were limited by existing required tasks and tighter budgets. Still so many unknowns.
As for white collar work, as impressive as GPT-4 is, it still does not appear to be very adept at nuance, in-depth understanding, incorporating context, and understanding how the human experience relates to the task at hand. These are all incredibly important skills in government, management, sales, financial services, information services, analysis and research, etc. Perhaps less important in the hard skills of fields like coding, accounting, physics, mathematics, engineering, but still very important when it comes to the soft skills of those jobs, as well as problem solving. Specifically where elements of design, creativity, and non-linear thinking come into play. Knowing what questions are the right questions to ask. Knowing how the architecture should fit together, and how it should be managed and function over the long-term. AI will be instrumental in streamlining and supporting computational elements of the tasks.
As an aside, a yet to be answered question and potential problem, is the fact that this computational work is how students and junior employees truly learn the ins and outs of a hard skill like coding, engineering, etc. and there maybe some element lost in lessening that deeper understanding with AI. Or it maybe more like computers and calculators and only mean that the knowledge base shifts and is able to grow faster than before the computational help. It's hard to say at this point.
I think AI will lead to a revolution in productivity and in assigning the more rote, routine, and time consuming tasks. Human oversight still very much engaged with aligning and designing the final output. This will likely be true of almost all white collar jobs, which still require those human elements of creativity, empathy, nuanced understanding, etc. Much like computers and the internet before it, the bulk of the change from AI will likely be productivity gains.
In our field of urban planning and city design, I think the tech promise is probably bigger than the real outcome (smart cities: the sequel), but it's still going to represent a massive change to the field in a fundamental way. In the same way that the data of a smart cities approach, helped us to confirm strategies (like what to focus on in order to reduce deadly car crashes, and where to implement interventions to see the biggest impact), AI will bring insights that help us do a better job of connecting measurable goals with real world outcomes. Additionally, AI will streamline and at least partially automate tasks like reports, spreadsheets, mapping, financial analysis, project prioritization, geographic analysis, permits, development approvals, pro formas, presentations, etc. However, where the creativity happens within these tasks, and how they are individualized for a particular community, project, culture, goal, etc. will still require human minds, for at least the rest of our lifetimes, and I would venture to guess long after that.
While AI represents a productivity game changer, it's also a potential threat to good design and planning in the same way modernism and auto-centric design were. We risk forgetting elements of design, learned over centuries, and thrown out for the sake of the shiny brand new thing. In the 20th century we made the mistake of seeing a technological change and assuming a human change. Instead we learned hard lessons about fairly static rules surrounding what works for communities and people in terms of city design. We face massive risks to society if that collective, shared, and organic wisdom about what works to build strong, resilient communities, functional housing markets, and active, engaged citizens, are not heeded. Many of these elements, we're still really learning, building, and progressing on what seems to work, and AI could be used to help this progress along. Or it could pose a risk to unlearning it. As is the case with nearly all technology, AI has the potential to greatly improve or greatly damage society, depending on how it's used. And given how powerful it is, the risk of getting it right vs getting it wrong, is potentially the greatest humanity has ever faced. Good luck us. No pressure.
Building on what Karen and Andy already wrote -- we are all going to have to learn HOW to ask the RIGHT questions. (Much like many of us learned when working with traffic and transportation engineers, the wording of your question may produce a different response. i.e. "this change will create a 20% trip delay vs. a 30 second delay...") Will we be forced to learn the AI language? Or will AI quickly learn our language?